Alberto Contador cannot win this year’s Tour de France. I know it is always risky to write off a champion, but after Stage 12, a 209km trek through the Pyrenees from Cugnaux to Luz-Ardiden there can be no other conclusion. The Spaniard could only finish 8th on the stage, with 6th of his major GC rivals all gaining time on him. The stage win went to another Spaniard in the form of Olympic Champion Sammy Sanchez. He broke away from the field early on the days final climb and held on to win from little known Belgian and breakaway companion Jelle Vanedert. Frank Schleck, the only one of the major GC leaders to put in a major attack, filled the podium in third. Thomas Voeckler managed to hold onto the Yellow Jersey with a courageous display of climbing, to finish just 50 seconds behind the stage winner.
While the win of Sanchez and the brave performance of Voeckler were the highlights of the day. The big story was the shake up in the battle for the GC in the first real big rendezvous of this year’s tour. Here is a summary of how they went in their current order on GC:
Frank Schleck – 2nd @ 1:49 – was the only one of the big GC guys to attack on the finish up to Luz Ardiden, or perhaps more accurately, he was the only one of the big 5 that the big favourites allowed to let go. Looked good when he did break clear and put 20 seconds into the favourites and now leads Evans by 17 seconds. The question is whether they let him go again and weather he can gain enough time to hang on in the final time trial.
Cadel Evans – 3rd @ 2:06 – Look totally comfortable despite having limited support from his team mates and at no stage did he look to be in any real trouble at all. On that ride alone, his current time advantage over some of the other big names, and his time trial ability, you would think he would be the current favourite. But there is always the feeling his annual mental breakdown is just around the corner.
Andy Schleck – 4th @ 2:17 – Outside Contador I reckon Andy looked the worst of the GC guys. Contador was really struggling and I just get the feeling that a fit Andy would have looked to put more time into him. He seemed to have the most difficulty in matching the surges of Basso and Evans and he will need to improve if he is going to gain enough time in the mountains to win the Tour.
Ivan Basso – 5th @ 3:16 – This guy looked awesome! While he doesn’t have the accelerations of the Schlecks or Contador he has a massive engine that can power up climbs. He sent his Polish teammate Sylvester Szmyd to the front to set the pace on the final climb and destroyed most of the peleton in the process. He looked in no danger and had no problem following any of the attacks. The main negative is that he is already over a minute down over Evans and Frank and will have to hope they have a bad day somewhere to make up that time.
Damiano Cunego – 6th @ 3:22 – It was great to see the little prince back in the form that saw him win the Giro in 2004. He stayed with the big boys for most of the stage and was just tailed off in the final kilometre or so. He has heaps of ability but doesn’t really have the engine to stay with the GC kings over the entire three weeks of a Grand Tour. He can’t win it but with more performances like that is definitely top 10 material.
Alberto Contador – 7th @ 4:00 – G O N E. GONE! El Pistelero was already 90 seconds behind the likes of Cadel Evans before this stage and with only 4 summit finishes at the tour this year had to make his move to try and start making time back on the likes of Evans and Andy. He didn’t even try to attack and at times could barely follow the moves of his rivals. In the end, the elastic finally snapped in the closing kilometre and he lost another 13 seconds to Evans, Andy and Basso. Whether it is knee, the energy exerted at the Giro, or the mental drain from his upcoming doping case before the CAS, he just does not seem to have it this year. For the first time in 7 events, he will not win a three week grand tour that he has started.
Samuel Sanchez – 8th @ 4:11 – I love this guy but I just think (a bit like Cadel) that he is a little too brilliant to win the Tour and is more of a classics man. He has also been hampered by some really poor luck, getting caught up in crashes early in the first week and losing unncesscary time. If he wasn’t already 2 minutes behind the likes of Evans and the Schlecks he would be a definite chance of winning but I just don’t think he will get any more leeway now and won’t be able to make up enough of that lost time.
So what does that all sum up to? The answer is I have NFI! With Contador seemingly collapsing before our very eyes the race is now an absolute lottery. A fit Andy Schleck would be hot favourite now but to my eyes his form looks ordinary. Frank looks in great form but has proven he is an atrocious time trialist at the end of three week races. The man that ticks all the boxes is (wait for it...) Cadel “Don’t Touch My Dog” Evans, but he always seems to be just one day away from a complete collapse in the mountains. That leaves me with Basso, who can be a decent time trialler on his day, but lacks the explosiveness to gain back the time he is already lost in the mountains. If I was dead honest the Tour is now really Cadel Evan’s to lose – which usually means tonight will be the stage where he completely explodes and loses 2-3 minutes. One thing is for sure – the way the race has opened right up we are in for a roller coaster ride all the way to Paris!
While Thomas Voeckler held onto his jersey two prize competitions did see changes. With this the first big day in the mountains, the Tour’s latest sweetheart Johnny Hoogerland gave up his polka dot jersey to Sammy Sanchez, who now leads the competition by 8 points from the Belgian that helped him up Luz Ardiden, Jelle Vanedert. The other change was in the youth classification with Robert Gesink (christ this guy is overrated!) completely collapsing on the Tourmalet to lose his white Jersey. While the jersey was feted to go to young Estonian Rein Taaramae, he wilted on the climb up to Luz Ardiden and the jersey instead passed to little known Frenchman Arnold Jeannesson, who will have been delighted to capture the jersey on Bastille Day. Mark Cavendish extended his lead in the points competition by leading the peleton over the line at the intermediate sprint, situated just before the start of the day’s three massive passes.
Yellow Jersey – Thomas Voeckler
Polka Dot Jersey – Samuel Sanhez
Green Jesrey – Mark Cavendish
White Jesrey – Arnold Jeannesson
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